Disturbing news from MASN.com (that's the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network) today. The site reports that the Nationals have had "conversations" with the Indians regarding the potential acquisition of Fausto Carmona and Grady Sizemore.
The Sizemore situation is tricky as absolutely no one can predict what level of play Grady will be capable of coming off of micro-fracture surgery. The procedure itself is pretty intense with tiny holes being drilled into the knee cap to facilitate the formation of new cartilage via a "super-clot." Yowza. Some return as good as ever (Amar'e Stoudemire), some never regain form (Tracy McGrady) and some are forever mired in injury (Greg Oden). Long and short, it's a crap shoot. Sizemore's value has never been lower, but it does, at this point, still exist. Should Grady fall sub-Mendoza or land immediately back on the DL, any remaining trade worth would evaporate. Also of note is that the chances of 24 re-signing with the Tribe, regardless of 2011-2012 production, is highly unlikely (his contract is guaranteed through '11 with a team option for '12). Either he booms and prices the Indians out or he busts and his career is over.
Carmona is a more known commodity, but only slightly. Fausto's inconsistency is famous and whether Jekyll or Hyde shows up in the coming campaign is anyone's guess. For the sake of discussion, let's label him a middle #2 or very good #3 starter. This mean, all by himself, he should fetch more than Jake Westbrook, but less that Sabathia or Lee. Fausto, though, has an unbelievably club friendly contract. Although it terminates at season's end, it pays him less than $4mil this year and the Indians have options for 2012, 2013 AND 2014.
So here we go. I think that the Indians have the capacity to play .500 ball this year, but not if they dump Sizemore and Carmona. The question that needs to be asked (and answered) is whether that handful of wins (no more than 14) is worth minimizing or eliminating a return for Sizemore and hitching our cart to Carmona's star. If, if mind you, the Dolans (and their puppet Antonetti) want to sell, they must get no less than C Derek Norris, 1B Chris Marrero and RHP Brad Peacock.
Washington's system is both top heavy and young. Strasburg and Harper are obviously not available, for any price, and Baseball America rates Norris the #2 prospect in the Nationals' organization. He has phenomenal plate discipline (89 BB in 389 PAs in 2010) and has power (23 HR in 2009), but injuries led to a batting average drop to .235 last season. That coupled with Washington's addition of C Wilson Ramos in the Matt Capps trade should make Norris attainable. Defense has never been Carlos Santana's forte and he doesn't project to be an everyday catcher for very long, so Norris does fill a need.
While the Indians have, in my opinion, a strong bullpen and a plethora of everyday prospects (don't worry Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall will be here soon), they do need starting pitching. National's top prospects AJ Cole (#4) and Sammy Solis (#6) are 2010 draftees and cannot be traded away until 1 year after they signed. Cole Kimball, as impressive as he has performed (11.6 K/9, 2.17 ERA in 2010), is a right-handed short man and does not add value to the Indians organization. That leaves us with RHP Brad Peacock (#10). #10 prospects are by no means sure fire stars (see Lou Marson), but Peacock does have a lot of upside. At age 22, he threw 140 innings in 2010 with a 9.4 K/IP and made it to AA. His WHIP (1.33) and ERA (4.50) are a bit high, but those numbers have a habit of flattening out as power pitchers gain better command.
Lastly is Marrero. Baseball America's overall #27 prospect coming into 2008, Chris has fallen on middling times in recent years. Although he hit .294 with an .800 OPS and 82 RBIs at AA Harrisburg last year, he has not shown the explosivity that Washington expected. He is in a no way a bust yet, he has simply fallen to #9 in the Nationals' system and some (see scoutingbook.com) still have him ranked in the top 65 overall. This is a make or break year for Matt LaPorta and, even if he exceeds expectations, he has some versatility (I hate that word) in the field. The "prospects" behind Matty draw a big "meh" (see Wes Hodges and Beau Mills), so Marrero does fill a need.
I am not promoting or supporting the idea of such a trade. .500 this year would be nice. It would put some butts in the seats and a song in my heart, but the Tribe ain't making the playoffs this year and needs to look 2-3 seasons out to a time when their bevy of young talent is pennant ready. I am simply saying that, if the Indians want/need to move Grady and Fausto, they cannot accept less than I have described.
Also, count me as part of the 45% on Cleveland.com that believe that the Buckeyes would beat the Cavs in a a head-to-head matchup.
Cheers.
